Learning Trade Forex

Third day EUR-USD fundamental analysis study

Asian Zone Market:
7:00 AM USD FOMC member hoenig speaks
7:01 AM GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y Previous 2.0% Actual 1.8%
7:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m Previous 5.4% Actual 4.0%
8:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Previous -7.0% Actual -5.7%
9:30am AUD Home Loans m/m Previous -2.9% Actual -1.8%

Summary: Asian zone economic data relatively weak, forcing the market to move down to Fibonacci 23.6% in 5 minutes time frame

Euro Zone Market:
2:08 PM JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y Previous 220.9% Actual 191.8%
4:30 PM GBP Trade Balance Previous -7.3B Actual -7.3B

Summary: Only one euro zone economic data so there is no significant impact. The market just fluctuate within 0% to 100% Fibonacci retracement level.

After Euro Zone: Market start major correction ignoring all the US Zone economic data as this is the moment the market is waiting for. This correction also fueled by expectation of economic data for Asian zone and Euro Zone in the following day which are mostly will impact the market strongly.

So major correction begins here and we will see where will the first stop. Expectation is at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point that could be more if the market is looking for further major upward movement. The first move is always unpredictable.

Third day EUR-USD fundamental analysis study

Asian Zone Market:
7:00 AM USD FOMC member hoenig speaks
7:01 AM GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y Previous 2.0% Actual 1.8%
7:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m Previous 5.4% Actual 4.0%
8:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Previous -7.0% Actual -5.7%
9:30am AUD Home Loans m/m Previous -2.9% Actual -1.8%

Summary: Asian zone economic data relatively weak, forcing the market to move down to Fibonacci 23.6% in 5 minutes time frame

Euro Zone Market:
2:08 PM JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y Previous 220.9% Actual 191.8%
4:30 PM GBP Trade Balance Previous -7.3B Actual -7.3B

Summary: Only one euro zone economic data so there is no significant impact. The market just fluctuate within 0% to 100% Fibonacci retracement level.

After Euro Zone: Market start major correction ignoring all the US Zone economic data as this is the moment the market is waiting for. This correction also fueled by expectation of economic data for Asian zone and Euro Zone in the following day which are mostly will impact the market strongly.

So major correction begins here and we will see where will the first stop. Expectation is at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point that could be more if the market is looking for further major upward movement. The first move is always unpredictable.

Tuesday 08 June 2010

Tuesday 08 June 2010

Now i would like to record the market movement based on fundamental economic data release. This my first time being serious in fundamental study of the market.

Sunday Jun 6 2010

Asian Zone Market:
7.30 AM AUD AIG Construction Index Previous 55.8 Current 53.2
9.30 AM AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 4.5% Current 1.2%

Impact: EUR-USD continue to move down until 1.1877 (Oversold)

Euro Zone Market:
4.30 PM EUR Sentix Investor Confidence Previous -6.5 Actual -4.1
6.00 PM EUR German Factory Orders m/m Previous 5.0% Actual 2.8%

Impact: Market going up for correction current position currently at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement in 15 minutes time frame. Expected correction up to 38.2%

There are no US Zone economic data for the day. So the market should take this opportunity to make correction for today.

No-news period: Market fluctuating between 23.6% to 100% Fibonacci retracement  within 5 minutes time frame. The market still in oversold zone for major time frame

Now i would like to record the market movement based on fundamental economic data release. This my first time being serious in fundamental study of the market.

Sunday Jun 6 2010

Asian Zone Market:
7.30 AM AUD AIG Construction Index Previous 55.8 Current 53.2
9.30 AM AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 4.5% Current 1.2%

Impact: EUR-USD continue to move down until 1.1877 (Oversold)

Euro Zone Market:
4.30 PM EUR Sentix Investor Confidence Previous -6.5 Actual -4.1
6.00 PM EUR German Factory Orders m/m Previous 5.0% Actual 2.8%

Impact: Market going up for correction current position currently at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement in 15 minutes time frame. Expected correction up to 38.2%

There are no US Zone economic data for the day. So the market should take this opportunity to make correction for today.

No-news period: Market fluctuating between 23.6% to 100% Fibonacci retracement  within 5 minutes time frame. The market still in oversold zone for major time frame

BBC News report that today will be the first batch of the financial to Greece which amounted of €20 billion euros from the total of €110 billion euros. Partly €14.5 billion from the Euro zone member states and the rest from the IMF.

Here comes again our main concern of the impact of the monetary aid may stir temporary turbulence on the EUR-USD trend movement. Despite of all the indicators signal support for long-term bearish continuation, this fundamental data can twist the market for significant correction. If the correction is very strong there might be a shift in direction from bearish to sideways.

Our temporary analysis goes as follow:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom oversold
Summary = Support bearish continuation and also correction due to oversold

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Chart formation: Double top support bearish continuation in the long-term (monthly time frame) chart.
Fundamental: Euro zone - Greece financial aid: Either strong or permanent correction.

BBC News report that today will be the first batch of the financial to Greece which amounted of €20 billion euros from the total of €110 billion euros. Partly €14.5 billion from the Euro zone member states and the rest from the IMF.

Here comes again our main concern of the impact of the monetary aid may stir temporary turbulence on the EUR-USD trend movement. Despite of all the indicators signal support for long-term bearish continuation, this fundamental data can twist the market for significant correction. If the correction is very strong there might be a shift in direction from bearish to sideways.

Our temporary analysis goes as follow:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom oversold
Summary = Support bearish continuation and also correction due to oversold

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Chart formation: Double top support bearish continuation in the long-term (monthly time frame) chart.
Fundamental: Euro zone - Greece financial aid: Either strong or permanent correction.

1. Oversold position = The market is looking for correction as some traders might be taking profits on this level
2. MACD & Stochastic Down = It will go further down if traders choose not to take their profits yet.

1. Oversold position = The market is looking for correction as some traders might be taking profits on this level
2. MACD & Stochastic Down = It will go further down if traders choose not to take their profits yet.

 

1. Strong upwards movement that will defy all the indicators that helps to keep the bearish trend. That means there will be long sharp spike upward and the aftermath of this scenario either permanent or temporary. If the result is permanent Uptrend will likely to start from here or otherwise downtrend will continue.
2. If the figure of the bailout is lower than expected then there could be short sharp spike and the market will then quickly normalize to continue its downtrend direction.

 

1. Strong upwards movement that will defy all the indicators that helps to keep the bearish trend. That means there will be long sharp spike upward and the aftermath of this scenario either permanent or temporary. If the result is permanent Uptrend will likely to start from here or otherwise downtrend will continue.
2. If the figure of the bailout is lower than expected then there could be short sharp spike and the market will then quickly normalize to continue its downtrend direction.

It has proven again that the market make a brief upwards movement before making continuation further downside after the Non-Farm Payroll release data last Friday February 07, 2010. This is one significant observation to take into account when trading in Forex.

This experience is taken from several observations of the NFP news release. I have no concrete evident why the market generally behaving this way, but i have a personal opinion that the technical traders are out of the market briefly to safeguard their profits and give way to the NFP or the news traders to take their turns. Consequently after the impact within 15 to 30 minutes later technical traders will be involve again in the market based on their analysis.

As a result of the technical traders action the market is briefly moving upwards last Friday. Then making continuation after that.

So just remember about the NFP is a dangerous lottery moment where technical traders are not so interested to trade. Only the gamblers love this moment, its like flipping coin game where 50:50 chances involve. If you are lucky you could be making a lot of money within 5 minutes range. Otherwise is also true for the unlucky :)

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It has proven again that the market make a brief upwards movement before making continuation further downside after the Non-Farm Payroll release data last Friday February 07, 2010. This is one significant observation to take into account when trading in Forex.

This experience is taken from several observations of the NFP news release. I have no concrete evident why the market generally behaving this way, but i have a personal opinion that the technical traders are out of the market briefly to safeguard their profits and give way to the NFP or the news traders to take their turns. Consequently after the impact within 15 to 30 minutes later technical traders will be involve again in the market based on their analysis.

As a result of the technical traders action the market is briefly moving upwards last Friday. Then making continuation after that.

So just remember about the NFP is a dangerous lottery moment where technical traders are not so interested to trade. Only the gamblers love this moment, its like flipping coin game where 50:50 chances involve. If you are lucky you could be making a lot of money within 5 minutes range. Otherwise is also true for the unlucky :)

-----------------------------------
KIS 2010 (1 PC/1 Year) - License Key
KIS 2010 (3 PC/1 Year) - Serial Key
Avira Antivirus Premium (1 PC/1 Year) - Activation Code
Avira Premium Security Suite (1 PC/1 Year) - Product Key
http://renew-antivirus.com

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.