Learning Trade Forex

I had busy December at my work so I couldn't trade at all. I didn't even open my charts.

For December
+6 pips
+2%

Year
-17%

This year I made many subtractions from account as I promised myself last year. Total loss when everything is taken in account is -17%. In term of pips it's about -100 pips of a size that I use lately. So it's not that much but nevertheless it's a loss. I'm yet waiting for profitable year. It's a sad notion for now seven year trading career, although first three years before this blog were mainly trying out things with really nothing on the line in terms of risk.
Like Harvey says looking for consistency is now the main thing. So from that is coming the willpower to continue something like this that looks like losing proposition. Even though losing days hurt much more then we feel good on winning days, winning days give us hope that one day our p&l will be as good as of The forexbird.

This year I had experience of doubling my account from the low point around Spring. So now I know that it can be done with regular effort and not something special. At second half of the year which wasn't so good I pressed myself to trade with bigger positions to break out from range of comfort zone I had before. Also by trading full margin most of the time I wasn't able to average down which was my mountain high weakness before. With that I wish to continue in the future because if I give myself opportunity to average down, soon I will.

To all my readers I wish Merry Christmas and Happy New Year with peace in the mind and love in the hearth.

Obviously in the long-run the EUR-USD is heading towards down-trend as indicated by MACD and stochastic in the Monthly and Weekly time frame. However in the intermediate and short-term trading the condition is very tricky. This is a position where indecision mind always take place. And of course it's also a place for the big traders to play game with the smaller traders.

Time and again this kind of position proved to be fatal for the smaller and inexperience traders. Understanding that the direction always move following the MACD and Stochastic, but actually this is a place of no decision. Despite of the indicator's direction anything can happen here either the chart will move up or down will be based purely on the crowds decision. If you are unlucky and not able to detect where the crowds are heading to, then you will be at lost or if you are lucky otherwise.

Obviously in the long-run the EUR-USD is heading towards down-trend as indicated by MACD and stochastic in the Monthly and Weekly time frame. However in the intermediate and short-term trading the condition is very tricky. This is a position where indecision mind always take place. And of course it's also a place for the big traders to play game with the smaller traders.

Time and again this kind of position proved to be fatal for the smaller and inexperience traders. Understanding that the direction always move following the MACD and Stochastic, but actually this is a place of no decision. Despite of the indicator's direction anything can happen here either the chart will move up or down will be based purely on the crowds decision. If you are unlucky and not able to detect where the crowds are heading to, then you will be at lost or if you are lucky otherwise.

Things simply didn't work out for me. I didn't understand today's market. It's not an excuse but spread is whole day above 1 pip and not usual 0.9 and that means holiday market conditions already.

Strong correlation between gold price and the Australian Dollar may give us the clue of the long-term direction of the AUD-USD. As you can see the ever increasing price of Gold, maintaining the bullish strength of Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD-USD). Perhaps this condition could continue for many more years to come if demand for Gold is never fade away. As a result strong possibility that the AUD-USD pair maybe going for the overbought condition. We will see this in few months to come.

Strong correlation between gold price and the Australian Dollar may give us the clue of the long-term direction of the AUD-USD. As you can see the ever increasing price of Gold, maintaining the bullish strength of Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD-USD). Perhaps this condition could continue for many more years to come if demand for Gold is never fade away. As a result strong possibility that the AUD-USD pair maybe going for the overbought condition. We will see this in few months to come.

It looks like it was nice trading with only one loss. But it's not so nice. On that losing trade I lost all profits gained so far and was in red on other half plus I opened that trade again at the bottom. It could go down from that point easily and I was emotionally unstable for good decisions. First of all I didn't cut that loss when it went against me on two half size trades but left it for twenty pips against me.
I wasn't in great mood today

The cable pair is poised to move up higher to 61.8% Fibonacci line if there is no interference from the daily economic data from the UK and Euro zone. This expectation also backed by MACD and Stochastic in the 4 Hourly time frame that is still moving inline upside direction. See candlestick chart below

The cable pair is poised to move up higher to 61.8% Fibonacci line if there is no interference from the daily economic data from the UK and Euro zone. This expectation also backed by MACD and Stochastic in the 4 Hourly time frame that is still moving inline upside direction. See candlestick chart below

Monday 07 December 2010 economic calender consist market components that might trigger the movement of the AUD-USD and USD-CAD pairs.

Monday 07 December 2010 economic calender consist market components that might trigger the movement of the AUD-USD and USD-CAD pairs.

EUR-GBP long-term perspective still uncertain as MACD and stochastic are moving in contra-direction against each other. MACD is heading downward while stochastic is upward, maintaining the strong balance of power between the bullish and bearish traders at 50% Fibonacci support resistant level.

However since MACD is dominant over the stochastic, the trend movement should favor down side in the long-run. Fibonacci analysis shows that the ideal place for downfall should reside somewhere at 61.8% Fibonacci line see chart below.

EUR-GBP long-term perspective still uncertain as MACD and stochastic are moving in contra-direction against each other. MACD is heading downward while stochastic is upward, maintaining the strong balance of power between the bullish and bearish traders at 50% Fibonacci support resistant level.

However since MACD is dominant over the stochastic, the trend movement should favor down side in the long-run. Fibonacci analysis shows that the ideal place for downfall should reside somewhere at 61.8% Fibonacci line see chart below.

Intra day trend of the EUR-USD is moving upward with the expected ideal target range up to the red line (middle of the bollinger band's line) as shown on the chart below.
In the intermediate-term perspective the pair is moving sideways gradually paving the way for the long-term down trend.
Therefore in the long-term expectation the EUR-USD should be going for long period of downtrend as the triangle is getting to completion.

Intra day trend of the EUR-USD is moving upward with the expected ideal target range up to the red line (middle of the bollinger band's line) as shown on the chart below.
In the intermediate-term perspective the pair is moving sideways gradually paving the way for the long-term down trend.
Therefore in the long-term expectation the EUR-USD should be going for long period of downtrend as the triangle is getting to completion.

At this moment the EUR-USD trend movement is somehow not very much predictable as MACD and Stochastic refuse to move in line. This is a place where traders usually got trapped.

Weekly chart: MACD and Stochastic not yet moving inline

At this moment the EUR-USD trend movement is somehow not very much predictable as MACD and Stochastic refuse to move in line. This is a place where traders usually got trapped.

Weekly chart: MACD and Stochastic not yet moving inline

I took my bite and don't care what will market do next. I'm not concerned about is there more potential, could my profit be bigger. I waited long for my trade, executed it and took profit that pleases me. That is all that should matter in any trade. I'm not paid to trade perfect. I shouldn't worry about missed profits, missed trades and various market movements on numerous time frames. Less I trade, less I'm exposed to emotional roller coaster.

Half size trade

Around half size trades. Didn't want to stick longer in front of charts, just to book this little win while I have it. Good for moral. :)