May 2009. results
+ 23 pips
+4%
This month was crazy struggle. I had problems trading with too small size and problems with being scared of bigger size. I have also problem when I approach near the break even level for the whole year, I get immediately back down in the hole.
In my positive days I win around 200 full size pips and in my negative days I lost around 180 pips. My losing days are big -80, -60, -40. Not all winning days are win with good trading. Sometimes senseless averaging works. Only thing that is making me to go on and not get insane are days when I trade exactly as I want. With reasonable loss points, clear game plan and understanding what are the reasons to take the trade. On my bad days I don't know what to do, I can see that there is action so I fly in usually going opposite of what I should. I don't cut losses and I let them go so much against me without any opportunity to came out positive. Well it's a miracle that I'm in the end positive for the month. Or, I'm doing at least something good. So those well played days are potential that I see in myself and why I keep pushing. Every very bad day have a point where it's opportune to just quit and try not to hold losers and finish with some reasonable loss. I lose control and do what I did hundreds of times, but now it's working less and less. Now I trade from the start with bigger amounts so I don't have enough margin to average hard like before. That is exact reason why I'm not putting more money into account.
Also I struggle with too small size because I let winners turn into bad losers because profit was never big enough. One time I had in the start of the day unrealized profit of 18 half size pips, it wasn't enough to take it. I finished the day at -166 half size pips. Emotional trading at it's maximum.
Swings from 50 pips up for the month down to -40 for a month next day. Then straight climb to 80 over several winning days, then back down to 20, climb to 50, back to 20.
Same old story
I don't know why but it accelerated. Swings between my good trading and extremely bad are now every few days. In last 2-3 weeks I had 3 catastrophic days. This week two of them. At those days my reason goes through the window. Why did I today fight the trend and yesterday or day before I wasn't, or I was conscious of how costly it can be. More importantly why didn't I change sides, or throw down the towel?
The reality is that sometimes I trade because I want to make some good trade because I can see opportunity for it, other times my attention is on the money. Guess which days are mini catastrophe? When I worry about money no loss is acceptable and norm is I'm doing opposite of what is normal to do in trading situation.
Trading was with various sizes on both accounts.
Actual loss today doesn't represent how bad it was because I was 40 pips more in the red 10 minutes before my last exit. Finally for the day I'm at -35 full size pips.
GBP-USD Post Analysis (29 May 2009)
Once again the candlestick counting method seems to work perfectly according to plan. It was 23 days ago (Read...), i have discussed about the possibility that the GBP-USD is going to form another white candlestick (monthly time frame) in the entire month of May. And now is the 29 May 2009 and it happens perfectly. This may seems to good to be true but yes it is and you can see it yourself on your trading chart. The white candlestick formed perfectly like a full eclipse without much wastage (see chart below).The most perfect part of it is that on the 19 May 2009 (Read...) which is 10 days ago we are expecting the market to break resistance level 1.5385 to move towards 1.5729 (344 pips away) and yes it does. In fact the market is now currently at 1.5963 which is 200 pips more than the expected movement.
The expectation is 100% according to analysis of candlestick counting.
GBP-USD Post Analysis (29 May 2009)
Once again the candlestick counting method seems to work perfectly according to plan. It was 23 days ago (Read...), i have discussed about the possibility that the GBP-USD is going to form another white candlestick (monthly time frame) in the entire month of May. And now is the 29 May 2009 and it happens perfectly. This may seems to good to be true but yes it is and you can see it yourself on your trading chart. The white candlestick formed perfectly like a full eclipse without much wastage (see chart below).The most perfect part of it is that on the 19 May 2009 (Read...) which is 10 days ago we are expecting the market to break resistance level 1.5385 to move towards 1.5729 (344 pips away) and yes it does. In fact the market is now currently at 1.5963 which is 200 pips more than the expected movement.
The expectation is 100% according to analysis of candlestick counting.
Forex Trade Result (29 May 2009)
Today is the last day of trading for the month of May and next week we are entering month of june where bearish sentiment is very much likely to happen. Therefore today the overall expectation for GBP-USD, EUR-USD, USD-CAD will still be bouncing ups and downs within the support resistance level. At this point usually there are three time frames mainly the 4 hourly, 1 hourl, and 30 minutes where indicators like slow stochastic will have strong impact on the market expected directions.
Forex Trade Result (29 May 2009)
Today is the last day of trading for the month of May and next week we are entering month of june where bearish sentiment is very much likely to happen. Therefore today the overall expectation for GBP-USD, EUR-USD, USD-CAD will still be bouncing ups and downs within the support resistance level. At this point usually there are three time frames mainly the 4 hourly, 1 hourl, and 30 minutes where indicators like slow stochastic will have strong impact on the market expected directions.
Getting used to full size
Trading with full size is making me nervous, but I want to get used to it so I try. First trade was picking top and I didn't like it immediately after I entered, so I closed it and I'm not sorry even if it was good. When I got nice spike in my direction I was more then happy to cash in second eur/usd trade. Usd/jpy is slow and scary pair for me. I was already enough stressed out for keeping it longer.
+20 pips
China Worried about US Debt - The making of a Powerhouse
Richard Fisher, head of the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas, Texas – one of the US’s largest states – told a British Newspaper yesterday that the Chinese are incredibly concerned over the US governments handling of the financial crisis, specifically, the printing of money by way of the Federal Reserve buying US government bonds, treasury bills and notes. For those of you that don’t know this, when a government wants to increase its cash position, it “lends: itself money by buying up its own debt. I know most of wish we could do that, but if this were the case we would be bankrupt with houses stripped and cars repossessed and the rights to our firstborn taken as well.This is yet another example of China showing they are worried. Did they come out and tell Ben Bernanke or Tim Geithner, the US Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary? No. Did they send a letter to Vice President Biden or talk with Secretary of State Clinton? No, and Clinton was just there. Did they address the congressional delegation who came to visit them this week – a delegation that included the speaker of the US House of representatives Nancy Pelosi, AKA the third most powerful person in the US? No. What they did do was take a round about way to let people know they are unhappy with the status of their investment and the way in which the CEO is handling the company. By Company I mean, The US and by CEO I mean Obama.
The Chinese are in a difficult spot, and I have written along these lines before in my Online Forex Blog, you see if they cause a widespread panic in the markets by making such a fuss over this, the value of their investments go down even further. Widespread panic regarding a rating decrease last week showed what it could do, the Dollar fell hard. What would happen if the Chinese leadership addressed the US leadership on this issue directly – it would take away the air of hearsay that exists now through these drips and drabs of media reports.
The Chinese are able to get their message out this way, but not in a way that would cause so much of a stir. Who reads these little interviews aside fro ma few of us boring people with nothing more to do? Wen Jiao Bing calling Obama on the phone to say “yo, what ARE you doing?” will get front page attention on every major newspaper. This way the Chinese get to have their cake without it collapsing on them. The US gets the message. And, I am sure, the US does not care.
Culturally the US and Chinese mindset are worlds apart. The Chinese are savers and conservative by nature fiscally (they also are superstitious), the Americans are care free, “it’ll all work out” type of thinkers – there is no long term.. Hell, the Chinese emperors buried thousands of ceramic soldiers and preserved aspects of their legacy. In May of 2009 they are thinking of 2030, whereas the Americans in May of 2009 are thinking of June.
In the end the Chinese will emerge stronger – this is certain. It happened the same way for the US in 1914 when it was purchasing all the gold it could. China is now doing the same. And where the US became a global leader in the 40’s because of it, China will dominate later on in this Century. Hold on to your Yuan’s, they might be worth something some day.
Forex Trade Result (28 May 2009)
Trading at support and resistance level is as difficult as ever because the expectation of the market moving towards overbought oversold position is always around to haunt your psychological stability. By following the indicators signals such slow stochastic, macd, and the bollinger bands in short-term trades all you need is none other than a little bit of luck on your side to earn the green pips.
Anyway below is the trade result tested on support resistance level.
Forex Trade Result (28 May 2009)
Trading at support and resistance level is as difficult as ever because the expectation of the market moving towards overbought oversold position is always around to haunt your psychological stability. By following the indicators signals such slow stochastic, macd, and the bollinger bands in short-term trades all you need is none other than a little bit of luck on your side to earn the green pips.
Anyway below is the trade result tested on support resistance level.
My Forex Online Views: Perspective is Everything
So – We saw yesterday that things are not as rosy in Euro land as people thought, I even wrote about it too, but it gets a bit worse. As it happens the German Economy shrank by again the first quarter of 2009 by 3.8% (6.7% for the year) which is the largest decline since the two Germany’s, East and West, were unified in 1990. What this says is that things are still getting worse. To top off that bad news, a German Finance official made a comment about the stability of German banks. He was quoted as saying “the toxic assets will blow up like a grenade” although later he denied saying that --- one listen to the audio that was played on the radio (BBC, of course) confirms that he did not say that. What he did say was “…the bad assets that the banks have on hand are liable to explode like a grenade if it is not addressed in a more aggressive manner.” Sounds the same to me.In the US, the stock market rallied after consumer confidence numbers rose reflecting that American consumers are optimistic about the future of their shopping. Who wouldn’t be? Have you seen the sales that are going on in the few stores left in America’s big, huge iconic malls? Traders get so excited over the smallest of things. They pumped up the stocks because of consumer confidence but neglected the more alarming data of housing and unemployment. Yesterday also saw the release of housing data which suggests that the price drop in America’s real estate market has not neared a bottom yet – and the forecast from the real estate community is that it won’t any time soon.
Fact is, with the Federal money given out during the stimulus phase, or as I like to call it, hand-out at the expense of taxpayer phase, builders are incentivized to just build. The numbers released yesterday showed that there is a big discrepancy between demand and available units being built. The market is being supplied with 600,000 plus new units – but the demand barely covers 300,000 of them. This alone does not take into consideration what is already on the market, or what is being foreclosed on. This was a housing start data and it showed that the stimulus is only stimulating the builders while the overflow would serve to further lower prices in the communities they are being built in.
Take San Diego County for example; in Oceanside, one of the wealthier, more exclusive areas, there is a house that was built three years ago – beautiful house – 4000 square feet inside – a mini-mansion by many standards which was sold for 1.75 Million Dollars in 2006. The bank took possession of the house and it is now on the market for 600,000 Dollars – almost 1/3rd of the original price.
So, when a consumer sees those prices they get excited and feel optimistic – “I can own that once unreachable house for so much less” – and they tell the pollster who calls them about how they feel and they say, “I feel great, I feel like things are picking up” – but talk to the banks about their toxic assets like the 1.7 million dollar house they are still trying to unload for 600,000 and the picture is completely different.
Those of you reading my Forex Online blogs know better – and if the rest of the trading community could see it – well, perhaps you won’t see these wild swings over nothing.
Patience
I was late in the trade and got bad fill. It was against me at first but the gbp was strong so it bounced back. Eur/gbp was getting weak but it manifested as eur weakness and not so much as gbp strength. I was patient for two hours and in the end I took profit because I didn't want to risk with another wave down because profit in pips wasn't so big for two hour trade. Trade was 2/3 of the size.
+18 full size pips
Light Trading and Poor Data from Germany Highlights Monday
On a relatively low volume day, the Euro rose slightly versus the dollar on Monday despite a data release showing German corporate sentiment fell short of market expectations. Traders took the data as a sign that any recovery in the Euro zone's biggest economy would take more time. The German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 84.2, up from 83.7 last month but below the 85 that analysts had predicted. Overall though, the Euro had a decent day.
At 10:15PM GMT, the Euro was up .14% to the USD to 1.4015, up .25% to the British Pound to .8804, up .42% tot he Canadian Dollar to 1.5736, up .17% tot he Australian Dollar to 1.7913 and down .1% to the Swiss Franc to 1.5177.
JPY
The yen returned to the selling pressure that had plagued it for several weeks after news reports confirmed that North Korea had conducted a nuclear test and test-fired three short-range missiles. The occurrence is seen as a negative factor for the currency given the island nation's geographical proximity to Pyongyang, North Korea. Analysts have said though that the downtrend has been exaggerated and that many traders used the North Korean tests as an excuse to unload long positions in the Yen.
At 10:25PM GMT, the Yen was down .3% to the USD to 94.73, down .4% to the Euro to 132.8, down .15% to the British Pound to 150.78, down .21% to the Swiss Franc to 87.5 and down .1% to the Australian Dollar to 74.11.
GBP
British were closed on Monday though the pound did manage to recover slightly after intense selling last week due to Standard & Poor's lowering the outlook for Britain's triple-A credit rating to "negative" from a "stable" rating.
In very light trading the Pound fell .1% to the USD to 1.591, fell .3% to the Swiss Franc to 1.7229 and rose .2% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.7871.
The trading on the Forex was very light Monday, roughly 1/3rd of an average day's trades were conducted. This was due to national holidays in both England and the United States. US and British Banks return to the Forex on today and we should see a return of normal volume.
GBP-USD Trade Results (26 May 2009)
Trade results for Pound-Dollar pair as of today and yesterday trade observation. Taking some chances from the minor correction. It is currently moving at the support resistance level on hourly time frame. I expected the market to make correction further to 1.5743 but it did not happen today. So this is what we got for today's scalping tradeGBP-USD Technical Analysis (19 May 2009) - READ | GBP-USD Technical Analysis (6 May 2009) - READ
GBP-USD Trade Results (26 May 2009)
Trade results for Pound-Dollar pair as of today and yesterday trade observation. Taking some chances from the minor correction. It is currently moving at the support resistance level on hourly time frame. I expected the market to make correction further to 1.5743 but it did not happen today. So this is what we got for today's scalping tradeGBP-USD Technical Analysis (19 May 2009) - READ | GBP-USD Technical Analysis (6 May 2009) - READ
Doing things that I'm no good at
I trapped myself with small positions. I was trading only 1/3 size and then it's so easy to add and losses don't hurt in the start. I had valid reason to stay in the trades between 9 and 10 a.m. but I forget that I will not go so easily out if and when things turn again against me. That's why I always got to get reminded with losses like this that I need to scalp because I'm not good at other things. I'm slow to responding to danger if I'm in the losing trades so long, my judgment get clouded and I make mistake after mistake.
-62 pips
The Next Big Thing in the Forex Online Market
The British government was rocked last week, first from the scandal involving the insane spending done by their parliament members and then by the warning from Standard and Poor’s that their credit rating – or should we say debt rating – is in peril of being lowered due to huge budget deficits and a rising national debt not seen since World War 2. Did the Sterling fall though? No, it did not – at least not as much as one would think that a “AAA” rated country would fall after hearing that they will soon be subject to higher interest rates and unfavorable terms that comes with anything less than a “AAA” rating. What did happen was quite fascinating, and it was something that I have been saying here for months. The US Dollar collapsed on the news out of England.Why? You might ask would the currency of a country across an ocean fall on bad news out of the British Isle’s. The answer is quite simple, Forex traders and investors know that the US is next on the chopping block. Although I firmly believe that they should be first based on their crazy debt to income ratio – they are running at a 12 Trillion Dollar deficit carrying a 1.5 Trillion dollar debt and GDP is expected to fall this year – the Dollar enjoys the privilege of being the Dollar, and thus it gets afforded a little more latitude when it comes to these matters.
But the real reason why the US was not first on this list was political and economic in nature. Lower the sovereign debt of the US and countries holding the bonds suffer. As the US will be faced with higher borrowing rates, and will not be afforded the right to offer so much debt and will be regulated as to the terms (10 year, 20 year 30 year), the value of the currency will fall and thus make the value of the debt already out there worth less. This will have a huge impact on the world economy and is probably one of the reasons why China is pondering accepting the Brazilian Real in trade over the US Dollar.
But one last thing on this, it is ironic though that while this might hurt the rest of the world, it will help the US get out of the mess quicker. By deflating the currency it means that the US has to pay less in order to repay a debt. For example, if China is holding $10 in bonds from 1999 those bonds are still worth $10 today – plus interest, however the value of the dollar is lower than it was in 1999 and so the payments that the US makes will be worth less than they were only a few months ago. Forex online blogsters are buzzing about this – and all those trading in the dollar should be aware that this is coming. Don’t say you were not warned.
How double top and double bottom exist?
One of the most popular chart patterns that you probably encounter in your daily trading is the double top double bottom formation. You can find this pattern almost in all time frames view ranging from 5 minutes to monthly. Before we go through deeper analysis on this, let's take a look what exactly are they?
What is double top chart formation?
Double top formation is simply a of chart pattern which resemble the letter M shape see picture below.
How it is formed is due to the market power trying to test the previous resistance level if it can breaks it. As the market fail to break the resistance in the second movement resulting in complete reversal of the market to create the M shape patterns. Even though you may not find this patterns all the time, but it is a worthwhile knowledge where you can keep in mind for future reference.
What is double bottom chart formation?
Double bottom formation is a chart pattern that resemble the letter W shape see picture below.
Even though their opposite shape, the caused of formation of the double bottom is exactly the same as double top. Where the market fail to break second resistance and then make a complete reversal.
How double top and double bottom exist?
One of the most popular chart patterns that you probably encounter in your daily trading is the double top double bottom formation. You can find this pattern almost in all time frames view ranging from 5 minutes to monthly. Before we go through deeper analysis on this, let's take a look what exactly are they?
What is double top chart formation?
Double top formation is simply a of chart pattern which resemble the letter M shape see picture below.
How it is formed is due to the market power trying to test the previous resistance level if it can breaks it. As the market fail to break the resistance in the second movement resulting in complete reversal of the market to create the M shape patterns. Even though you may not find this patterns all the time, but it is a worthwhile knowledge where you can keep in mind for future reference.
What is double bottom chart formation?
Double bottom formation is a chart pattern that resemble the letter W shape see picture below.
Even though their opposite shape, the caused of formation of the double bottom is exactly the same as double top. Where the market fail to break second resistance and then make a complete reversal.
My Fundamental Perspective - forex gambling
Even though i believe in the influence of fundamental factors on the market movement but i am not a keen fundamentalist practitioner when it comes to forex trading. In my opinion using the fundamental is like a gambling game. I have come to this conclusion after some of my observational experiences failed to discover consistent patterns that i can rely for over 3 years now. Perhaps the experience fundamental traders could explain more about this but i have a point to tell you why i believe it a gamble
Let's us evaluate one intriguing fundamental situations that we face everyday.
Consider a situation where you have access to the major central bank staff who is responsible for the economic data release everyday. In which the case you are always been informed ahead of others about the results of economic data that will come out on daily basis. Where as the major crowds is behind you. Since you hold the knowledge of the results, you have the ultimate confidence to open trade position based on the economic data expectation. During the release event itself the uninformed crowds are becoming anxious where some will open their trade position according to the data and some others on the opposite. In an unexpected situation suddenly there are more major crowds opening their bet against you. So you are obviously losing because the crowds are not on your side where the most money party is the winner. So think about it again even having the knowledge of the data release may not help you much in this kind of situation.
My best observation of such case is during Non-Farm payroll data release where the market moves very fast in extra-ordinary volumes within minutes or seconds. Despite ofmy long time observation still i failed to discover consistent patterns to address the exact direction of the market and occasionally losing in this special event in forex trading.
It is one of my great challenge to understanding the forex fundamental that eventually making me losing my interest of studying them to the deepest level and nearly stop in doing so nowadays. I used to ignore the news release and stay away from trading during those turbulence hours. I believe it is enough just to know the fundamental factors shake the market temporarily and use technical indicators to measure the spill over and trade the correction part.
My Fundamental Perspective - forex gambling
Even though i believe in the influence of fundamental factors on the market movement but i am not a keen fundamentalist practitioner when it comes to forex trading. In my opinion using the fundamental is like a gambling game. I have come to this conclusion after some of my observational experiences failed to discover consistent patterns that i can rely for over 3 years now. Perhaps the experience fundamental traders could explain more about this but i have a point to tell you why i believe it a gamble
Let's us evaluate one intriguing fundamental situations that we face everyday.
Consider a situation where you have access to the major central bank staff who is responsible for the economic data release everyday. In which the case you are always been informed ahead of others about the results of economic data that will come out on daily basis. Where as the major crowds is behind you. Since you hold the knowledge of the results, you have the ultimate confidence to open trade position based on the economic data expectation. During the release event itself the uninformed crowds are becoming anxious where some will open their trade position according to the data and some others on the opposite. In an unexpected situation suddenly there are more major crowds opening their bet against you. So you are obviously losing because the crowds are not on your side where the most money party is the winner. So think about it again even having the knowledge of the data release may not help you much in this kind of situation.
My best observation of such case is during Non-Farm payroll data release where the market moves very fast in extra-ordinary volumes within minutes or seconds. Despite ofmy long time observation still i failed to discover consistent patterns to address the exact direction of the market and occasionally losing in this special event in forex trading.
It is one of my great challenge to understanding the forex fundamental that eventually making me losing my interest of studying them to the deepest level and nearly stop in doing so nowadays. I used to ignore the news release and stay away from trading during those turbulence hours. I believe it is enough just to know the fundamental factors shake the market temporarily and use technical indicators to measure the spill over and trade the correction part.
USD-CAD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)
Recent downturn of USD-CAD is the result of upside major correction which takes place for the 3 months earlier. At this point we witness again that the US Dollar is still not yet recover from weakness against the Canadian Dollar.
Throughout my personal experience this is normal and it shows that USD-CAD recovery is nowhere near. Historical statistic from my observational experience there are two possibilities in this case that the pair might target the middle bollinger band lines of the weekly time frame or worse case back to the bottom.
However since the pair is moving from the top bollinger band line therefore the perfect target with the highest probability should be the middle band line. If it moves directly to the bottom band then it is oversold again. Anyway we do not want to speculate too much in this case because the unexpected can happen anytime. This is proven as it happens time and time again during my years of trading observation and analysis.Based purely on technical perspective we can expect that the USD-CAD should reverse upside again by the month of June. We will wait and see...
USD-CAD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)
Recent downturn of USD-CAD is the result of upside major correction which takes place for the 3 months earlier. At this point we witness again that the US Dollar is still not yet recover from weakness against the Canadian Dollar.
Throughout my personal experience this is normal and it shows that USD-CAD recovery is nowhere near. Historical statistic from my observational experience there are two possibilities in this case that the pair might target the middle bollinger band lines of the weekly time frame or worse case back to the bottom.
However since the pair is moving from the top bollinger band line therefore the perfect target with the highest probability should be the middle band line. If it moves directly to the bottom band then it is oversold again. Anyway we do not want to speculate too much in this case because the unexpected can happen anytime. This is proven as it happens time and time again during my years of trading observation and analysis.Based purely on technical perspective we can expect that the USD-CAD should reverse upside again by the month of June. We will wait and see...
AUD-USD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)
AUD-USD recent upward movement is one special case that we cannot predict in forex. By right based on weekly slow stochastic and candlestick counting (weekly time frame) it should move down, but in reality it chose to move up (overbought). This is where many traders can fail if they rely too much on their technical indicators and strategies to predict the market direction.
Even though this phenomena happens occasionally but the impact is like losing frequently. At this point you have no idea if the market will continue the overbought or reverse soon. Throughout my long-time observation i have encountered many situations like this and despite of my familiarity with it still i failed to avoid losses when it happens. This is because i just cannot predict when exactly the market will move.
Therefore sometimes i just use my guts feeling to trade and usually close my position if it is not moving according to my expectation after a certain period of time.
AUD-USD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)
AUD-USD recent upward movement is one special case that we cannot predict in forex. By right based on weekly slow stochastic and candlestick counting (weekly time frame) it should move down, but in reality it chose to move up (overbought). This is where many traders can fail if they rely too much on their technical indicators and strategies to predict the market direction.
Even though this phenomena happens occasionally but the impact is like losing frequently. At this point you have no idea if the market will continue the overbought or reverse soon. Throughout my long-time observation i have encountered many situations like this and despite of my familiarity with it still i failed to avoid losses when it happens. This is because i just cannot predict when exactly the market will move.
Therefore sometimes i just use my guts feeling to trade and usually close my position if it is not moving according to my expectation after a certain period of time.
beware of long-term trend overbought oversold
Underestimating the market movement usually is the work of those who look for precision in trading. Unfortunately there is no 100% precision in forex. New traders most often over confidence of using their strategy or technical indicators and they tend to overlook the unforeseen danger of market power. As a result they got caught in the middle of long-term overbought oversold position making substantial losses not knowing why it happens.
A short-term overbought oversold situation is not so painful because even if you are wrong the market eventually will move back or make correction just in time for you to avoid losses.
However in long term overbought oversold situation is different as the market may stay that way for a long time like 1 or 2 weeks before making correction. By the time it retraces back you are already collecting a pile of rollover fees (losses). That is certainly not worth the deal as you are making big time loss. Not only you are losing on rollover fees but also the time and money which you may need to trade during the period of waiting the market to comeback. See the example below EUR-GBP pair it takes a month for the market to retrace back.
How to avoid such situation from fooling you? There is no precise answer to this due to the unpredictable movement which caused by fundamental factors that is beyond our control to influence. The very least we can do in this situation is to watch over the price movement closely and check all the necessary indicators like MACD, Slow Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and Candlestick. If the price movement defies the direction of all the indicators mentioned do not take your chances as the market is moving on a weak ground. Anything can happen either it will continue or reverse no one knows.
Until the market is fully corrected and price action moves according to the indicators direction then you are 90% safe to trade again. There is one indicator that can predict higher accuracy compare to any other in this situation and that indicator is candlestick patterns and counting.
The interpretation of candlestick patterns is when you smaller (shorts) candlestick patterns it indicates weakening market movement, which at this point you should anticipate the market might reverse. Secondly candlestick counting will help you to determine how many white or black candlestick has been formed. If it is 2 you should be aware of reversal might be just near.
beware of long-term trend overbought oversold
Underestimating the market movement usually is the work of those who look for precision in trading. Unfortunately there is no 100% precision in forex. New traders most often over confidence of using their strategy or technical indicators and they tend to overlook the unforeseen danger of market power. As a result they got caught in the middle of long-term overbought oversold position making substantial losses not knowing why it happens.
A short-term overbought oversold situation is not so painful because even if you are wrong the market eventually will move back or make correction just in time for you to avoid losses.
However in long term overbought oversold situation is different as the market may stay that way for a long time like 1 or 2 weeks before making correction. By the time it retraces back you are already collecting a pile of rollover fees (losses). That is certainly not worth the deal as you are making big time loss. Not only you are losing on rollover fees but also the time and money which you may need to trade during the period of waiting the market to comeback. See the example below EUR-GBP pair it takes a month for the market to retrace back.
How to avoid such situation from fooling you? There is no precise answer to this due to the unpredictable movement which caused by fundamental factors that is beyond our control to influence. The very least we can do in this situation is to watch over the price movement closely and check all the necessary indicators like MACD, Slow Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, and Candlestick. If the price movement defies the direction of all the indicators mentioned do not take your chances as the market is moving on a weak ground. Anything can happen either it will continue or reverse no one knows.
Until the market is fully corrected and price action moves according to the indicators direction then you are 90% safe to trade again. There is one indicator that can predict higher accuracy compare to any other in this situation and that indicator is candlestick patterns and counting.
The interpretation of candlestick patterns is when you smaller (shorts) candlestick patterns it indicates weakening market movement, which at this point you should anticipate the market might reverse. Secondly candlestick counting will help you to determine how many white or black candlestick has been formed. If it is 2 you should be aware of reversal might be just near.
Uncle Sam can Sing Chicken Little's song now – The Sky has Begun to Fall
The seeds are being planted for the removal of the dollar as a reserve or so it seems this fine Tuesday morning. I woke up to read in the Financial Times that both Brazil and China will seek to use their own currencies in trade rather than the popular US Dollar. What this means is that instead of China buying goods from San Paolo using the greenback, the Brazilians will accept the Renminbi and when purchasing goods from Beijing, the Chinese will accept the Real. This has huge implications and I will explain why.Although this is a small deal between an economic mammoth and a moderate sized country, it opens the doors for other countries to do the same – it sets the precedent. And while it is not necessarily a Chinese or Brazilian declaration that they are ditching the dollar as a reserve, it allows them to begin scaling down their reserves as it is not needed for trade anymore. The Chinese have figured out a smart way to do this, without sticking a huge middle finger up at the US, and without making tsunami sized waves. This will be slow process, a backdoor to redefining the global monetary system without anyone seeing it happen before it is too late.
The US should have expected this, they are 12 Trillion Dollars in the hole and are only worth 14 trillion annually – a number that is certain to decline this year as a result of the slowdown. Being that there are only 800 Billion actual dollars in circulation (not including the fake ones that North Korea has been printing), this puts the US in a position similar to Rome eighteen hundred years ago – a dominant power in the world that those in need turn to for help yet on the inside, they are collapsing financially and are actually the ones in dire need of help.We have never seen this before so it is hard to derive a historical reference that could give us insight as to how this will play out. But my Forex Online readers and Traders, I refer you to Zimbabwe as an example of what could happen if the proverbial crap hits the fan in the US.
Trade smart – and watch the Dollar today.
Standard & Poor downgraded UK
Standard & Poor downgraded UK outlook from stable to negative and we got this market action. Notice that it happened six minutes before usual gbp news time, so many traders could be in the trades. When I trade I regularly pull stops 100 or maybe more pips away from the market if it's near my stop level and I'm not going to take it. I just drag red line of stop on Oanda chart somewhere "safe". There was 70 pips drop in first minute, two minutes of indecision or getting what is going on and than 120 pips down in next two minutes. All before news time, drop of 200 pips.
Every year there are few occasions like this. In day to day trading we get used to what is normal and forget about this and ignore it because it's rare enough. Well is it? So next time when I move my stop I'm taking a slight chance to experience something similar.
I didn't want to trade today, I'm little burned out. Well maybe sixth sense kept me out.
Nothing is working as I think it will
It's hard to find nice trade that I like, than I stumble who knows how in some trade and stick to it. I shorted gbp pair after news but momentum stalled. Usd/jpy was getting weak also so I figured maybe some jpy strength will come in. I was like forever in that trade mostly in a loss. Finally I got out before other gbp news, but spread never got widen. Later is it began to drop. Positions were 1/3 size.
Eur/jpy was just oposite idea. When it looked to me that there will be no jpy strength I got long eur/jpy around support. Idea was that usd/jpy will bounce back and eur/usd will try again to test high. It wasn't working also, now jpy was getting strong. I averaged because all pairs bounced but it took some time to work. To me it looked like it will not work, but you know me hardest thing in the world is to exit in a loss.
Well eur got strong and fly up. I guess that I took profit when I saw more than 20 pips in the bag. The thing is usd/jpy didn't get stronger so I feared that this will not last in eur/jpy, even if eur was that strong. Now when I write that's exactly what is going on. Eur/usd is strong but eur/jpy is back down. Eur/jpy position sizes were 1/2.
It looks to me that nothing is working as I think it will. I can't find nice scalp trades because pairs are so volatile. I can't complain too much because in the end somehow I finished positive.
+26 full size pips
Naive trading
I'm happy that I'm positive. I exit my first gbp/usd in a loss seconds to news. Good thing that it run up there because there was possibility of me riding into the news with that trade. Why? Just because it was in a loss. After news, without any big impact gbp/usd start to move slowly up. So this was as I call it for myself naive trade, it means that it look to me so obvious that it can't be like that. It usually is, but I have hard time taking those obvious trades. I took the profit because for some reason it didn't look to me that it will run through 500 at once, and I have a loss to cover from earlier trade and nice profit to book.
Later I was really late in jpy strength all over the board. I was looking at the chart while it moved like 30 pips from the moment I noticed sudden jpy strength. I could wait a little more, but those 9 pips of 1/3 size looked sweet because jpy stopped and I was thinking that this is right time to big jumps and not gentle moves, so I didn't believe it any more.
Gbp/usd trades with 2/3 size, gbp/jpy with 1/3.
+17 full size pips
Profit Target, Reversal, and Correction point Indicators
Every experience traders developed their own ways of trading and so the indicators they use to determine entry point, profit target (exit point), reversal, and correction point are varies. Where as the beginners or novice usually follow the experienced traders based on their successful experience of using the indicators.
So what are the most used indicators to determine those critical point in forex trading?
1. Slow Stochastic
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
4. Chart Formation
5. Candlestick Patterns
6. Bollinger Bands
7. Simple Moving Average Combination (Exponential Moving Average)
8. Fundamental Factors (Economic data release)
Foundation of Technical Indicators (Simple Moving Average) Read
| Candlestick count post analysis Read | MACD, Slow Stochastic, Bollinger Bands Combination Read | Reversal Indicator Read | MACD & Slow Stochastic Combination Read
Profit Target, Reversal, and Correction point Indicators
Every experience traders developed their own ways of trading and so the indicators they use to determine entry point, profit target (exit point), reversal, and correction point are varies. Where as the beginners or novice usually follow the experienced traders based on their successful experience of using the indicators.
So what are the most used indicators to determine those critical point in forex trading?
1. Slow Stochastic
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
4. Chart Formation
5. Candlestick Patterns
6. Bollinger Bands
7. Simple Moving Average Combination (Exponential Moving Average)
8. Fundamental Factors (Economic data release)
Foundation of Technical Indicators (Simple Moving Average) Read
| Candlestick count post analysis Read | MACD, Slow Stochastic, Bollinger Bands Combination Read | Reversal Indicator Read | MACD & Slow Stochastic Combination Read
GBP-USD Technical Analysis (19 May 2009)
As discussed earlier 13 days ago (6 May 2009) in the previous post HERE the Pound-Dollar pair should be forming the second white candlestick until the end month of May. This give us the idea for the whole picture along the month of may the pair is moving up and up. Any minor retracement will follow up by reversal upside as the the market is maintaining its position to create the while candlestick.
As of today 19 May 2009 we are closer to the end of the month rally, the next expectation is that will the pair break the resistance level 1.5385? And if it does there is possibility that the pair might move towards 1.5729 which is 344 pips away. With 7 days we have left can this pair move up to that level at least for temporary stay ;). Let's see...
| Candlestick Counting - Read| EUR-USD Post Analysis - Read | Candlestick count post analysis - Read |
GBP-USD Technical Analysis (19 May 2009)
As discussed earlier 13 days ago (6 May 2009) in the previous post HERE the Pound-Dollar pair should be forming the second white candlestick until the end month of May. This give us the idea for the whole picture along the month of may the pair is moving up and up. Any minor retracement will follow up by reversal upside as the the market is maintaining its position to create the while candlestick.
As of today 19 May 2009 we are closer to the end of the month rally, the next expectation is that will the pair break the resistance level 1.5385? And if it does there is possibility that the pair might move towards 1.5729 which is 344 pips away. With 7 days we have left can this pair move up to that level at least for temporary stay ;). Let's see...
| Candlestick Counting - Read| EUR-USD Post Analysis - Read | Candlestick count post analysis - Read |
USD/JPY
Still struggling in a clash between trying to trade full size so I don't push for excessive profit as I do with half size and refusing to get out in the loss but trying to average down. So this are two charts of the same thing trading full size on main account and subaccount. On thing that is important to remember is that fading the trend is o.k if it's done on extreme. First trade on first chart was a short 8 pips lower then the high minute ago. It looks like a reversal at that time, but it's trouble because it's 8 pips retracement also. Second thing to learn is at my first trade on second chart. I had 8-10 pips profit in next few minutes but I didn't take them. I was waiting for both open positions to make reversal and go into profit. That way I risked a lot if things turn. Which they did, but luckily I got second chance.
+23 full size pips
Forex trade
Forex trade or trading in Forex is all about buying and selling of foreign currencies to earn profit in the world largest economic and trade market. Forex is a short form for the market called foreign exchange and has a large number of brokers and traders involved in it on daily basis. Forex trade deals with more than a trillion of dollars every day and has a working of 24/7.
With brokers, banks, financial institutes (across the world) all being involved in exchange of currencies via electronic mode of network, Forex market today largely represents the on that began in year 1971.
In the Forex market trading is done in currencies divided in pairs ‘majors’ and minors’. Here currencies are purchased and sold against another for the purpose of making profit. The ‘majors’ are highly dealt currency pairs, the commonly dealt ‘major’ are U.S Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Euro vs. U.S Dollar (EUR/USD), U.S Dollar vs. Swiss France (USD/CHF) and British Pound vs. U.S Dollar (GBP/USD).
Known as a serious market with fluctuations and inflation here and there without a notice, Forex trading requires a detail understanding and analyses before any decision regarding the buying and selling of currencies. The up and down in the Forex market or Forex trade largely depend upon any news or event affecting the political, economical and social happening of a particular country. Any change or implementation of a policy by bank or a financial institution can also affect the movement of a currency or pair. Thus, trading in Forex requires a person to keep a minute to minute update of news around the world.
Forex trade is world of investment where even a simple mistake can cause a heavy loss, thus for every new trader having a complete understanding of Forex trends and tools is necessary for making the right and calculated decision. Forex is a risk if taken as a past time, thus to have a substantial amount of course or training on FX does no harm. Those who declare Forex jeopardy to their investment are those who have no idea of Forex trade at all.
What makes Forex trade a platform o be explored is the fact that unlike other exchange market, Forex is an ‘Over the Counter’(OTC) market with a trade that runs whole week and can be access any part of the world as, trading in Forex is done on web and phone between two parties. Leverage and risk management tools are another reason that makes Forex trade worth getting into. Also, the fact that FX market has low transaction costs makes it a benefit. The volatility involved in Forex trade gives opportunities to be explored by buying and selling of highly paying currencies.
Apart from all the tools and techniques that work in earning a profit in Forex trading platform, personal intuition plays a role too. Forex trading largely depends on right assumptions and predictions based on the knowledge, understanding and a complete study of Forex trend.
Learn Forex
Forex is buying of a currency to sell against another and has a power of earning big profit and good opportunities for traders and brokers around the world. But without proper knowledge and clear understanding of the rules and regulation of trading in Forex things can go upside down.
Learning Forex or foreign exchange means to have a complete know-how of various trends and techniques behind a successful and smart Forex trading.
Forex or foreign exchange is world’s largest financial trade market with trillions of dollars involved in day to day trading. Also, Forex is the only trade market that works OTC (over the counter) with no land based office or central exchange building, as al the Forex dealings are done via electronic mediums of technology like mobile and internet.
If you a new comer to Forex market learning about Forex and it’s ways is definitely the right move, but even those can go for learning about Forex who have been trading for few years but fail to make big difference in their trading style. How to find out whether you need to learn Forex or not? Simple, ask your self whether you know how to use Forex tools, can you control your loss, do you find difficulty in making decision while dealing Forex or can you read Forex charts and analyses when to sell or buy the right pair, these are few of the things that makes a basic of foreign exchange and can be found out by learning and educating yourself on Forex market, Forex trading system, online Forex, Forex currency trading and much more.
Knowing that Forex begun in 1970 does not makes you a winning trader. Before entering into FX you need to learn basics, technical trading and analyses in trading.
With the world going techno and trendy, today there are numerous ways to help gain knowledge and learn it all about Forex and Forex trading. You can always search for Forex news and articles on Forex or you can look for online Forex trading course. There are large number of free online Forex trading courses and Forex training offering sites present on web. For beginners joining Forex blogs and forums can be a good idea, as such places and chat sites provides good material and experienced tips for learning more about Forex.
Forex market
Forex market
Foreign exchange largely known as Forex or FX is the biggest economic trade market, as it deals with almost 2 to 3 trillion dollars each day which is far more than the amount being traded in any other exchange or stock market. . Forex market involves buying of a currency and selling off another simultaneously.
The big money market called Forex came to its existence, when the national currency of United States became unstable due to drop in gold standard, somewhere around early 1970. It was an era when banks across the world found hidden profit in the buying of weak currency and selling it after its gains its value.
Forex market is a whole new concept of trade with 24/7 exchange and no central office or address like stock market. Fact that transactions and dealings in Forex market are done via electronic medium like telephone, internet and mobile makes it known as OTC (over the counter) or ‘Interbank/Interdealer’ trade market. Trade or dealings on Forex market is done via brokers, banks, private firms or financial companies.
While the trading is done between two counterparts just like any other trade but in Forex market the trade is done in terms of pairs. Pairs mean the combination of two currencies as such that when you sell your currency against the other one; you get the value set on another one. Pairs in Forex are of two kind ‘Majors’ and ‘Minors’. While most of the traders like to deal with ‘Majors’ currencies, some of them are:
- GBPUSD (Pound/Dollar)- EURUSD (Euro/Dollar)- USDJPY (Dollar/Yen)- USDCHF (Pound/Dollar)
Forex trade or Forex market has an inevitable reasons for pulling traders and brokers towards it, what makes FX a desirable market apart from it 24/7 working is the numerous benefits and advantages it offers to people. Following are some the reasons why one should invest in Forex: Largest liquidity to support easy exchange of currencies Tools for managing risk and Tool for technical analyses No commission Easy online access from any part of the world 24 hours and 5 days of trading
Forex training
Forex or foreign exchange is a 24/7 working economic market and has daily dealing of 2-3 trillion dollars every day. Basic definition of Forex describes it as the world’s largest financial market where buying and selling of currencies is done. It is also an over the counter market where the transactions or trading is done via phones, internet and mobiles. With a huge liquidity and leverage involved in the foreign exchange it is definitely a hug platform for those who wish to make it big in the world of finance.
With so much involved in Forex it is risky business if not handled properly and with a complete understanding of it. Specially, for those who are new to trading business, a good Forex training can be a help as well a great idea to protect the investment from drowning.
Many new traders make a mistake of trading with just a basic knowledge of Forex market and the hype behind it, but they do not realize the importance of Forex training till they end up losing heavy. Having an idea on Forex terminology and the various tools available in Forex is good, but it is advisable that you do not ignore the technical and strategically aspect of Forex market.
An effective training in Forex helps a newcomer in adjusting to various ups and downs in the market, as winning or losing can seriously affect a trader’s confidence. Forex training helps to understand and achieve the patience required for trading effectively. Such as, it teaches you to hold on to your seat even if you lose once or twice and to trade slow even if you win a good deal. Trading in Forex has its own rules and one such rule in planning and making strategy. A good education in Forex helps to understand techniques behind planning your moves and to decide on to your entry and exit point in trading market.
Having a course or education in foreign exchange or Forex currency trading is not just full of benefits for a new trader, but also helps a traditional or professional trader in learning on how to detect and avoid small and silly errors in trading market.
It’s a serious and big market that is unstable and largely depends on the activities (social, economical and political) around the globe. Thus, Forex education emphasizes on being alert and updated about news and events happening minute to minute. Having a complete knowledge of factors affecting a currency pair also helps in making strategies and decision on when to sell and when to buy.
Losing money in Forex is something that largely depends on the risk management of a trade or deal, thus a good Forex training offers a new comer with the understanding of various tools like demo account or stop loss to limit or minimize their losses ( including the importance of trading slow and low).
What is Foreign Exchange?
Foreign Exchange, commonly known as FX or Forex, is the platform where one nation's currency is exchanged for another. With 2-3 trillion dollars being traded by traders and brokers all over the world foreign exchange is a huge platform of opportunities for making money.
Foreign exchange is also known as FX or Forex and is a 24/7 exchange market with no land based or centralized office or zone for trading. Forex exchange is unlike any stock or exchange market that trades freshly on day to day bases and has a central office where complete dealing is done. Also, Forex has no bull and bear dominance making the whole currency buying and selling a comfortable process.
In Forex the trading is done with currency pairs and these currency pairs are present in two group ‘Majors’ and ‘Minors’. In these pairs where the first currency acts as a commodity the second currency is the actual money. The profit in trading Forex pairs comes when you buy one pair and sell a currency against another, thus the key to profit lies in purchasing low rate currency and selling it against the high rate or well doing currency.
Some of the four famous ‘Major’ pairs are:
- Euro and USD (EUR/USD),- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), USD- British Pound and USD (GBP/USD)- Swiss Frank (USD/CHF)
Forex
Widely known as FX or Forex, foreign exchange is a currency market where buying and selling of currencies is done. Forex is the world’s biggest trade market and has large number of trader and brokers involved in it. Apart from being a 24/7 market, Forex has a large number of benefits that makes it a home for traders across the world.
Forex or foreign exchanges is different and much more advantageous from other trade markets like stock market or any other exchange market.
What make Forex unique are its benefits and the amount of money that is being traded on daily bases. With more 2-3 trillions of dollars on trade, Forex includes trading with currency all over the world divided into ‘Majors’ and ‘Minors’. EURO, Japanese yen, US dollar and British pound are few of the examples of ‘Majors’. These ‘Majors’ and ‘Minors’ are dealt in pairs when trading in Forex. Thus, the most common pairs are GBP/USD (British pound/ US dollar), USD/JPY (US dollar/Japanese Yen) and EURUSD (Euro/ US Dollar).
Unlike any other exchange market, Forex is an Interbank/Interdealer market where the trading is via a broker or a bank. Forex is also known as over the counter (OTC) market, as it has no central building or land based office and all the trading is done on phone or internet.
In Forex, rise and fall of currencies or pair directly dependent on the political, economical or social changes of particular country, also such fluctuation can occur due to change in quotes or policies of banks. This instability of currencies makes Forex a serious matter and that is many Forex education or Forex trading courses are found on net or provided by Forex companies.
Thus, with so much on line it is important to deal every Forex buying and selling process with a complete knowledge and idea about the current situation of market, the trend of ups and downs and so on.
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